Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none
Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee
Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none
Free NBA pick:
UTAH -8 Phoenix
The Suns have a better road record than they have road mark. Now they are big road underdogs to a team that lost two straight and is 4-7 last 11 outright. The dog must be a great play right? Not so fast!
Go against road teams that have played better on the road than at home is 132-75-7. Fairly big favorites, quality teams in a losing streak are 245-169-9.
Illinois lost four straight off seven game winning streak. Such teams are 25-14-1 for 64.1 percent (Illinois)
Penn State won eight straight
Road teams lost at least four straight versus opponent won at least seven straight are 69-49-3
Lamar Stevens, is the PSU top scorer averaging 17.7 points per game. Stevens is averaging just over 21 points in his last eight games
Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn is 6-9 and goes against small PSU frontline
Cockburn is currently averaging 13.6 ppg but has averaged just 8.3 points in the last four games
Ayo Dosunmu, soph is leading scorer for Illinois but questionable
Independent computer predictions: Penn State 74-67, 76-66, 76-67
The pick: Illinois +7
Oklahoma St at WVU (-11, 135)
OSU seniors have combined to account for 59 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 62 percent of all Cowboys points over the team’s last five games
How will they score to WVU? The West Virginia defense has allowed only 61.8 points per game to opponents this season, ranking the Mountaineers 19th among Division I teams. The Oklahoma State offense has averaged 67.2 points through 25 games (ranked 261st, nationally).
The Mountaineers not being able to total 60 points in their current losing streak. They have been plagued by a combination of poor shooting and turnovers, averaging 42% from the field and 30% from three, while also committing over 15 turnovers per game.
In the 2019-20 college football season, twice I lost unders in overtime in spite of concluding regulation more than 30 points under the total. And they were far from the only totals just in said season that didn’t go over the total until multiple overtimes with me being on the excruciating end of a bad beat.
I’ve heard even some fairly sharp gamblers renounce wagering on unders, especially in college football. Of course, it’s immeasurably more desirable to bet an over from a rooting standpoint. A game can go over long before the game ended, but an under is never, well under until it’s…well over.
After I suffered that second 30something point overtime to rip my heart out, a sharp gambler who I’ve known for decades gave me the cliched, “You just have to hope they even out over time.”
Probably not the case for me in college football, but that’s okay. A majority of my greatest systems betting college football totals favor the under.
In every sport, the under comes in more than 50 percent of the time, not shockingly college football at the highest rate. Though it’s a modest 51.5 percent, it’s also over more than 12,600 games. Oh, and I have plenty of over systems too.
The reason is simple. A disproportionate percentage of bad beats are on overs because of overtime (or extra innings), bombing and fouling in college basketball and NBA, hurry-up offenses at the end of football games, topping a list. Because of the college football overtime rules, unders can be heartbreaks on steroids.
I’ve seen even reasonable gamblers say they won’t bet unders, especially in college football because of the inevitable anguish. I’ve warned against charging yourself “phycological juice.” Yes, a loss betting on horrible teams, against top squads, or betting an under, which was on pace to win easily most of the way, only to collapse at the end, all “seems” to hurt more.
Underophobia by many gamblers, creates opportunities for the sharps, because the books must adjust for over bias. I cannot not stress enough, a triple overtime loss on the under is excruciating, but never bet with a broken heart. The added opportunities that overlay creates is our compensation.
You have heard the slogan, “No pain, no gain.” It’s so true in gambling. The toughest bets to root for so often produce the best results. When handicapping totals, the best handicappers so often win under pressure…so to speak.
The Tigers have allowed just 63.7 points per game across six conference games, an improvement from the 76.7 per game they gave up in non-conference play.
Princeton has won its last five home games, scoring an average of 71.4 points while giving up 54.8.
Yale defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 37.9 percent, the 11th-best mark in the country. Princeton has allowed opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field through 19 games
Independent computer predictions: Yale 72-66, 71-65, 75-67 (all by at least 6)
The pick: YALE
Akron (-5, 155) at Central Michigan
Akron has gone 4-2 in their past six games. In those wins, they’ve allowed 40 percent shooting.
Top two defensive teams in conference
UA will play four of their next five games on the road. So far, they’re 5-3 away from Rhodes Arena