Free Picks and Inside Info Friday Betting

CBB

Wright St at Northern Kentucky (-3.5. 145.5)

Wright State won by 32 in first meeting

Though team won first meeting generally the good bet, about 50-50 if team lost by 30 or more and are favorites in rematch 

NKU gotten healthy while WSU sliding after 9-1 start

Dantez Walton is NKU’s leading scorer

–14-4 SU with him, 7-4 without 

Wright State is deep and loves to play fast 

The pick: Northern Kentucky 

Washington St at Washington (-9.5.137)

Washington just snapped nine-game losing streak 

Fade home teams off a win that snapped a losing streak of nine or more is 62-48 (Washington State)

WSU expected to get back starting point guard Isaac Bonton, who missed three games

— Bonton averages 14.8 points and 4.0 assists per game

The pick: Washingotn State 

Texas St at UT Arlington (-1, 134)

Independent computer predictions: UT Arlington 66-65, 65-65, 66-65

The pick: UNDER 

Davidson at Dayton (-11, 141)

Dayton won 15 straight by average of 20 ppg 

Cain’t manufacture emotion 

National TV, plus Davidson a named team in that traditional miid-major power 

Vitale going to be there

Gary and Gudmundsson 

Dayton’s only two losses in OT

The pick: Dayton 

Gambler’s Report With Free Picks Today, Critical Injuries for Bettors

Super sharp report for February 26. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: LA Clippers 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia, LA Clippers 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Pittsburgh opened +1.5 now -1

Free NBA pick:

PHILADELPHIA -8 Cleveland

Big away favorites versus opponent off win is 478-320-14. 

NBA injuries:

Andre Drummond, CLE vs PHI , Out

Trae Young, ATL vs ORL, Questionable 

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs MIN, Questionable 

LaMarcus Aldridge, SAN vs DAL, Out

Elfrid Payton, NY @ CHR, Doubtful

Eric Gordon, HOU vs MEM, Out

Dewayne Dedmon, ATL vs ORL, Doubtful

Top Sports Bettor With College Basketball Locks

Joe Duffy with four free winning sports picks. 

NCST at UNC (-2.5, 145) 

UNC seven straight conference losses 

UNC 77 percent of scoring from senior, including 85 percent last five games

Home teams lost seven or more straight good fade at 560-515-29, even better in conference play

Independent computer predictions: NC State 73-72, 72-72; 73-72

The pick: NC State 

Iowa at MSU (-7, 152) 

Iowa F Luka Garza 23.7 ppg, 9.6 rebounds 

-MSU Marcus Bingham Jr. has played well against elite big men 

Michigan State can counter with small ball line-up and make Garza run 

MSU get support from players other than Cassius Winston or Xavier Tillman versus Nebraska 

Look for MSU to go with smaller line-up and build on secondary scoring

Independent computer predictions: MSU 79-73;79-71; 78-73

The pick: OVER 

Kanas St. at  Baylor) (-15, 124.5) 

Kansas State lost eight straight road by 10 ppg 

Baylor among best defense and K State horrible on offense 

Fading teams off loss, snapping a winning streak of 12 or more is 114-77-5 (Kansas State)

Large underdogs in a game expected to be low-scoring 305-264-14

Computer likes fave 

Independent computer predictions: Baylor 70-53; 70-52, 72-49

The pick: Kansas State

Duke (-11, 150) at Wake Forest

Duke 12-0 series by 15 ppg

Devils freshman 55 percent of scoring including 62 last five games

Teams that won first meeting by at least 31 are 741-637-23 (Duke)

-54.5 percent when laying at least nine points in rematch (though better if rematch is at home)

Independent computer predictions: Duke 80-70; 84-69, 80-71

The pick: Duke

USA Legal Sportsbooks Do Not Want You To See

NBA injuries

Luka Doncic, DAL vs MIN, probable

Deandre Ayton, PHX @ UTA, probable

D’Angelo Russell, MIN @ DAL , Confirmed

Paul George, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Tobias Harris, PHI vs ATL, questionable

Patrick Beverley, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Elfrid Payton, NY @ HOU, questionable

Kevin Love, CLE vs MIA, probable

As far as sharp bets, not a ton to report. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free NBA pick:

UTAH -8 Phoenix 

The Suns have a better road record than they have road mark. Now they are big road underdogs to a team that lost two straight and is 4-7 last 11 outright. The dog must be a great play right? Not so fast!

Go against road teams that have played better on the road than at home is 132-75-7. Fairly big favorites, quality teams in a losing streak are 245-169-9.  

Fantasy NBA Injuries, Free Sports Pick, Line Trackers

NBA Injuries:

Ben Simmons, PHI vs BKN, Questionable 

De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs MIA, Questionable 

Kevin Huerter, ATL vs MIA, Probable 

Eric Gordon, HOU @ GS, Questionable 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Milwaukee; 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Troy, Belmont, UC Davis 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free college basketball winner on SANTA CLARA  +14.5 to byu

High volume based on rebounds, field goal percentage of last game is 1896-1545-84. 

Tuesday Critical Betting News, Notes

Illinois at Penn State (-7, 141)

Illinois lost four straight off seven game winning streak. Such teams are 25-14-1 for 64.1 percent (Illinois)

Penn State won eight straight 

Road teams lost at least four straight versus opponent won at least seven straight are 69-49-3

Lamar Stevens, is the PSU top scorer averaging 17.7 points per game. Stevens is averaging just over 21 points in his last eight games

Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn is 6-9 and goes against small PSU frontline

Cockburn is currently averaging 13.6 ppg but has averaged just 8.3 points in the last four games

Ayo Dosunmu, soph is leading scorer for Illinois but questionable

Independent computer predictions: Penn State 74-67, 76-66, 76-67

The pick: Illinois +7

Oklahoma St at WVU (-11, 135)

OSU seniors have combined to account for 59 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 62 percent of all Cowboys points over the team’s last five games

How will they score to WVU? The West Virginia defense has allowed only 61.8 points per game to opponents this season, ranking the Mountaineers 19th among Division I teams. The Oklahoma State offense has averaged 67.2 points through 25 games (ranked 261st, nationally).


The Mountaineers not being able to total 60 points in their current losing streak. They have been plagued by a combination of poor shooting and turnovers, averaging 42% from the field and 30% from three, while also committing over 15 turnovers per game.

Independent computer predictions: WVU 73-61, 74-58, 72-60 (all under)

The pick: UNDER

Pitt at FSU (-12, 135.5)

Independent computer predictions: FSU 72-60, 72-59, 73-61

FSU won 21-of-24 SU

Underdogs of 12 or more with 15 or more wins and at least three games above .500 solid 263-221-11 for 54.2 percent including 56.5 percent road

The pick: UNDER

Creighton at Marquette (-3.5, 153.5)

Marquette seniors collectively accounted for 73 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 78 percent of all Golden Eagles points over the last five games.

Marquette has won its last four home games, scoring an average of 79.8 points while giving up 65.5

Creighton great at protecting ball, though Marquette does not force a lot of turnovers 

Creighton has won 7-of-8 SU, including road wins at No. 8 Villanova and No. 10 Seton Hall 

Independent computer predictions: Marquette 79-76, 78-77, 79-77

The pick: Creighton 

Winning Totals is Somewhere Under the Rainbow

In the 2019-20 college football season, twice I lost unders in overtime in spite of concluding regulation more than 30 points under the total. And they were far from the only totals just in said season that didn’t go over the total until multiple overtimes with me being on the excruciating end of a bad beat.  

I’ve heard even some fairly sharp gamblers renounce wagering on unders, especially in college football. Of course, it’s immeasurably more desirable to bet an over from a rooting standpoint. A game can go over long before the game ended, but an under is never, well under until it’s…well over. 

After I suffered that second 30something point overtime to rip my heart out, a sharp gambler who I’ve known for decades gave me the cliched, “You just have to hope they even out over time.” 

Probably not the case for me in college football, but that’s okay. A majority of my greatest systems betting college football totals favor the under. 

In every sport, the under comes in more than 50 percent of the time, not shockingly college football at the highest rate. Though it’s a modest 51.5 percent, it’s also over more than 12,600 games. Oh, and I have plenty of over systems too. 

Betting unders, sports gambling secrets revealed

The reason is simple. A disproportionate percentage of bad beats are on overs because of overtime (or extra innings), bombing and fouling in college basketball and NBA, hurry-up offenses at the end of football games, topping a list. Because of the college football overtime rules, unders can be heartbreaks on steroids. 

I’ve seen even reasonable gamblers say they won’t bet unders, especially in college football because of the inevitable anguish. I’ve warned against charging yourself “phycological juice.” Yes, a loss betting on horrible teams, against top squads, or betting an under, which was on pace to win easily most of the way, only to collapse at the end, all “seems” to hurt more. 

Underophobia by many gamblers, creates opportunities for the sharps, because the books must adjust for over bias. I cannot not stress enough, a triple overtime loss on the under is excruciating, but never bet with a broken heart. The added opportunities that overlay creates is our compensation. 

You have heard the slogan, “No pain, no gain.” It’s so true in gambling. The toughest bets to root for so often produce the best results. When handicapping totals, the best handicappers so often win under pressure…so to speak. 

Friday College Basketball Gambling Notes

Yale (-4.5, 137) at Princeton

The Tigers have allowed just 63.7 points per game across six conference games, an improvement from the 76.7 per game they gave up in non-conference play.

Princeton has won its last five home games, scoring an average of 71.4 points while giving up 54.8.

Yale defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 37.9 percent, the 11th-best mark in the country. Princeton has allowed opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field through 19 games 

Independent computer predictions: Yale 72-66, 71-65, 75-67 (all by at least 6)

The pick: YALE 

Akron (-5, 155) at Central Michigan

Akron has gone 4-2 in their past six games. In those wins, they’ve allowed 40 percent shooting. 

Top two defensive teams in conference 

UA will play four of their next five games on the road. So far, they’re 5-3 away from Rhodes Arena

Independent computer predictions: Akron 82-76, 82-77, 81-76 (All 157 or more)

The pick: OVER 

UIC at Wright St (-11, 148)

Wright State big fave on revenge, but no edge either way

Wright State has won its last nine home games, scoring an average of 86.6 points while giving up 68.9.

Wright State great at protecting ball, while UIC not good forcing turnovers 

Independent computer predictions: Wright State 79-67,81-66, 78-68

Rider at Siena (-5.5, 148)

Siena 10-0 SU home

On ESPNU

Independent computer predictions: Siena 78-73, 79-72, 76-72

Critical College Basketball Betting News For Gamblers

News and notes section from Joe Duffy, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper. 

Memphis at Cincy (-6.5, 139)

Precious Achiuwa Memphis limited Saturday to 18 minutes with injury 

—His 12 double-doubles top among freshman in nation 

–Questionable 

–Since 12-21 stepped up his game

Cincinnati had five-game winning streak snapped in OT

—Fading teams off an overtime loss snapping at least a 5-game win streak is 95-71 if team betting is not off OT game (Memphis)

—3 or more game winning streak 253-170-5

Independent computer predictions:  Cincinnati 72-65, 71-65, 72-66

The pick: Memphis 

Iowa at Indiana (-1, 149)

Indiana on 4-game losing streak to fall on wrong side of bubble 

Teams with winning percentage of .650 or higher on a 4-game losing streak solid 61-48-1 (Indiana)

Independent computer predictions: Iowa 76-75, 76-73, 75-73

The pick: Iowa

Colorado at Oregon (-3.5, 139)

Oregon’s Payton Pritchard outstanding all-around player but McKinley Wright is able to guard him well one-on-one, making it tough for other players to beat them

CU’s bench just 15 points last two games, but been erratic all year, so capable of bouncing back

Colorado has been struggling in first half lately, but making halftime adjustments 

Oregon gets Francis Okoro back after missing his size when he returned to Nigeria for father’s funeral 

But Ducks N’Faly Dante, 6-11 monster still out

Independent computer predictions: Oregon 71-68, 69-66, 72-69

The pick: Colorado 

Washington State at UCLA (-8, 137)

Washington State exceeded last season’s win total behind play of CJ Elleby

Independent computer predictions: USC 69-66, UCLA 70-64, 70-65

The pick: Washington State 

NBA Betting News and Notes

Not a big NBA portfolio, but critical info on tonight’s card. 

Jaylen Brown, Boston, will play at Houston

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans will play at home versus Portland 

Zach LaVine, Chicago, probable at Washington

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Washington Wizards; Northern Illinois

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Washington Wizards; Air Force

Free winner: 

NBA

LA CLIPPERS -1.5 Philadelphia

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak 639-499-16.