Month: March 2020

UNC (-3.5, 142) vs VT

Lower seeded team is favorite though game is in Greensboro 

UNC travels 43 miles, VA Tech just 87

North Carolina made only seven 3-pointers on 22 attempts while the Hokies went 14 for 37 behind the arc en route to a 79-77 victory.

Neutral court favorites of 3.5 or more in revenge of same season loss is 216-164-11 (UNC)

Heels as healthy as they have been all season 

After losing 13 of their first 16 ACC games, the Tar Heels have won three of their last four games.

The Tar Heels did not have point guard Cole Anthony and guard Brandon Robinson in 2 OT loss to VA Tech because of injuries.

–Anthony, who is averaging 19.6 points and 4.0 assists, made the All-ACC third team and the ACC all-freshman team Monday. Robinson averages 11.9 points.

–UNC zero fast break points in first meeting, but that will change 

82 percent of early bets on UNC

Independent computer predictions: UNC 70-69, 70-66,72-69

The pick: UNC

Pitt vs Wake (-1,139)

Pitt traveling 302 miles, Wake just 25

Pitt lost to Wake Forest in January at Petersen Events Center after leading the Demon Deacons by 16 points in the first half. 

Pitt 17^th at forcing turnovers -live betting

Pitt has won an ACC tournament game three of last four years, with Wake just once since 2014

Independent computer predictions: Wake Forest 70-69, 68-68, 71-69

The pick: Pittsburgh 

Indiana-Nebraska (-12.5, 143.5)

Nebraska has lot 16 straight

Teams that lost at least 16 in a row and not playing on opponents home court are 49-32 fade (Indiana) and 87-62 if lost 14 straight 

Neutral court teams in losing streaks of nine or more not laying points are 27-20 (Nebraska) but 2-7 last two years

Nebraska traveled 558 miles, Indiana 46

Indiana won both meetings, but on in OT, the other by 8

Indiana just 12-22 all-time SU tournament 

Dachon Burke and Cam Mack both questionable with suspensions 

Burke started 27 of 29 games

-Burke 12.2 *****The premium pick is, 3.4 rebounds 

–Mack 12 ppg, 4.5 boards, 6.4 assists 

Independent computer predictions: Indiana 77-67, 78-66, 78-67

The pick: Indiana 

CBB

Buffalo at Bowling Green (-1, 156)

Bowling Green has won its last seven home games, scoring an average of 71.1 points while giving up 66.3.

Buffalo playing for a bye, while Bowling Green clinched

At 21-9, Bowling Green can’t afford to lose if want at-large bid

Independent computer predictions: Bowling Green 79-76, 78-76, 80-78

The pick: Bowling Green 

Georgia Tech at Clemson (-4.5, 130)

Tech won first by nine

Though team that won first generally good play in second game, not as much here

Independent computer predictions: Clemson 65-61, 64-61, 65-62 (All under)

The pick: UNDER 

Quick Hitters

Wake Forest at NC State (-8.5, 152.5)

Seniors coring 78 percent of NC State’s point and 89 last five games

Wake Forest has lost its last seven road games, scoring 70.4 points, while allowing 82.3 per game.

NC State perfectly on bubble, so need a blowout 

Independent computer predictions: NC State 79-72, 80-72, 79-73

The pick: NC State 

VCU at Davidson (-2.5, 135) 

VCU has dropped its last four road games, scoring 62 points and allowing 76 points during those contests. Davidson has won its last six home games, scoring an average of 75.7 points while giving up 55.8.

Independent computer predictions: Davidson 70-67, 69-66, 70-67

The winner: Davidson 

Notes: 
Dallas and Milwaukee both playing front end of back-to-back games, while Lakers and Golden State are playing back end of back-to-back games. New Orleans, LA Clippers, and Sacramento have big edges in terms of recent travel.  

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee; SMU

Free NBA pick:

SACRAMENTO -7.5 Detroit

Big home favorites in revenge of same-season blowout loss are 758-625-35 including excactly 60 percent since 2013. 

Critical NBA injuries 

Luka Doncic DAL @ MIN, questionable 

Serge Ibaka, TOR @ DEN, questionable 

Christian Wood, DET @ SAC, questionable 

Fred VanVleet TOR @ DEN, questionable 

Danny Green, LAL @ NO, questionable 

Jordan Poole, GS vs WAS, questionable 

De’Aaron Fox  SAC vs DET, questionable 

Khris Middleton MIL @ CHR Probable 

Draymond Green GS vs WAS, questionable 

Paul Millsap, DEN vs TOR, questionable