Momentum Most Important in College Football Betting

The reasons that sports betting supremacy is disproportionate to those who master computer software are infinite. Among them, it eradicates knee-jerk scientifically unsound proclivities. Whereas so many fundamental realities categorically cross sports, dubiously the most distinguishable exception is the consequence of momentum.

Expectedly, college sports are the outlier, while professional teams are more likely to bounce back. Not only are younger athletes more susceptible to be streaky, but also college sports are where bowl and tournament seedings induce “statement wins” to have tangible significance.

In the college football regular season, teams after a win of 36 points or more, when not playing a team off a win margin of 34 or more are 1486-1234-56 for 54.6 percent. However, time off hinders momentum, so when rested eight days or less, such teams are 1315-1056-47. That’s an impressive 55.5 percent with an imposing sample size of about 2,400 games.

Unexplainably, when performed on neutral sites, it’s only 11-15-1. While there isn’t a clear-cut justification reason why—a small sample size is probable—when the game is played on the home field of one of the participants, the outcome is 1304-1041-46 for 55.6 percent.

Then again, we have explored the misconceptions about neutral field and court handicapping. Hence, eliminating those complexities is sound.

While “regression to the mean” is among our money machine declarations borne out by winning systems, not-so-fast on the collegiate gridiron. Of course, there are substantially more profitable subsets we have saved into the computer vaults.

Though the winning percentage is not substantial enough to harness without corroboration, the sample size makes it noteworthy that in the college football regular season, teams off a win are 5451-5179-217 when playing a team off a loss. However, when the team with more short-term momentum is clearly outmatched on the road (visiting underdogs of at least 22), said teams are just 65-96-5. Thus, excluding that cluster heightens the angle.

Bottom line, while so many principles, most notably counterintuitive ones, triumphantly crossbreeding into other sports, momentum is an eminent exclusion. Computer enhanced science-based conclusions should always override assumptions and agendas.

Home Field Advantage: Will It Exist For Bettors in Empty Stadiums?

Sports are coming back. I think. Well, I hope.

My handicapping is evidence informed validated with statistically meaningful proof. Most sports will conduct business on home fields, as opposed to the NBA and NHL, which will compete in bubble situations and hub cities. But the stadiums and arenas will be played absent of fans for the foreseeable future.

Indubitably, the definitive gambling issue is how will this affect many of our systems that are site explicit? On one hand, would could argue the absence of fans reduces HFA (home field advantage). Conversely, the unprecedented world situation should make the comfort of home, security of sleeping in one’s own bed, that much more considerable.

My educated opinion is there won’t be a big change in HFA. Most likely, there will be gross overreaction. Sites like Covers and Action Network will tell us statistically irrelevant minutia like the road team has covered seven of the first 10 games.

The citizenry is sure to pursue fool’s gold and ride early patterns. We will stay on course. Fortunately, our famed “math totals,” innovative principles that cross sports, are not site specific.

I am going to track patterns possibly shifting due to the uniqueness of the situation. Do not misinterpret that I will neglect the extraordinary circumstances. However, I am not going to induce knee-jerk amendments. Keep in mind, my advanced analytics measure oddsmaker over-adjustments and their reaction to the public outsmarting themselves. And that’s where my biggest edge will be.

From one of the greatest movies off all-time, It’s a Wonderful Life, Peter Bailey says, “Can’t you understand what’s happening here? Don’t you see what’s happening? Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why. He’s pickin’ up some bargains.”

There is a very good chance that will accurately describe my winnings in these exceptional circumstances.

NL MVP Award Winner

Baseball expert Jordan Duffy, a fantasy MLB expert, previews the NL MVP in his debut article.

With a 60-game season, ​many things become much more of a crapshoot. ​ ​The NL MVP was already going to be tricky to predict prior to COVID-19. Will an established, perennial all-star like Betts or Yelich win? Could Bellinger repeat his 2019? Or will a young phenom like Acuña or Soto rise above the competition?

With the small sample size of 60 games, what would normally be an ​insignificant ​hot/cold streak could be the difference between winning the MVP and not even being in the conversation.

My pick

Christian Yelich +700

I know what you are probably thinking: did you forget that Mookie Betts was traded to the Dodgers? No, I did not. ​Mookie Betts is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP after leaving Mike Trout’s shadow in the American League, but I decided to go with a bolder decision in Christian Yelich.

I went with Yelich as he is the superior offensive player, while Betts is more well-rounded. Although voters have become a lot better about considering every aspect of the game in recent years, defensive statistics are notoriously volatile and in a shortened season, voters will likely put a larger emphasis on offense.

There’s no question that Yelich is the real deal. Following his 2018 MVP campaign, Yelich put up another MVP caliber season in 2019 (and he likely would have repeated had a broken kneecap not cut his season short). His peripherals also have supported the results: 99th percentile for xwOBA and xSLG, and 98th percentile for xAVG and Exit Velocity, according to Statcast.

Honorable Mention: Mookie Betts (duh)

Big name ​to be avoid: Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger is coming off a huge year, ​which goes without saying considering he is the reigning MVP. Having just turned 25, he looks very appealing at first glance; however, his stats were heavily inflated by a very hot start.

Bellinger finished 2019 with 7.8 fWAR—tied with Yelich for the NL best—but 3.8 (~49%) of it came during his first 46 games. That was 1.0 fWAR ahead of Yelich, who ranked second at the time.

In his remaining 110 games, he played much more like the Cody Bellinger we had seen in previous years. Although still very good, it’s not MVP material. He put up 4.0 fWAR—which was good for 18th in the MLB and 9th in the NL in that timespan. He slashed .263/.373/.562 for a wRC+ of 136.

Those numbers closely reflect his career numbers prior to 2019: ​.263/.347/.522 and a wRC+ of 128.

Complete odds:

Mookie Betts +285
Ronald Acuna Jr. +600
Christian Yelich +700
Juan Soto +800
Bryce Harper +1200
Cody Bellinger+1200
Fernando Tatís Jr. +1200
Javier Baez +1800
Ketel Marte +2000
Nolan Arenado +2000
Peter Alonso +2000
Kris Bryant +3000
Paul Goldschmidt +3000
Eugenio Suarez +3500
Jacob DeGrom +3500
Manny Machado +3500
Rhys Hoskins +4000
Max Scherzer +4500
Trevor Story +5000
Anthony Rizzo +6000
Andrew McCutchen +8000
Nicholas Castellanos +8000