Month: August 2021

Week 1 early week college football money moves. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Texas A&M, North Carolina, Arkansas, San Diego State

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Army, Pittsburgh, Nevada, Ole Miss, Michigan State, San Diego State

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Oregon, Army, Western Michigan 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Kansas State +2 to -2, Texas -10 to -8

Holy hell. Dogs are going to bark all day long. Start out with Weekday Underdog Game of the Year during the day, then get three MLB Majors for night led by at least one Juicy Lucy. Juicy Lucies are either moneyline or runlines in which we get +140 or more. PicksDepot.com has the winners 

Free

Washington-Miami UNDER 7.5 (Gray-Cabrera)

This is the lowest total either team has seen recently and easily Josiah Gray’s lowest total of the year. Sounds like an easy over, right? Nope. 

The Nats last seven games have seen six totals of 9 or more, the other 8.5. Miami has had five straight of 8.5 or more. Angle that compares the current total to recent ones and uses that knowledge against them goes under 3129-2412-284. Comparing current total to season average goes under 2020-1536-221. 

Josiah Gray hasn’t had a total of less than 8.5 all year. But when a pitcher has a total less than previous starts, it goes under 3155-2392-246. Several combo angles, but one that combines pitcher and team ones goes under 424-257-35 including 66-28-1 this season. 

Orioles 5-32 -24.1 units off 4 straight losses 

Rockies 4-27 -24.4 units road versus opponent averaging .6 or fewer errors per game 

Marlins 9-33 -21.5 units after scoring 2 or fewer runs

MLB free pick from Joe Duffy.

ARIZONA (GILBERT +172) Colorado (Gomber) 

Anti-splits angle in which we go with road team with much worse away winning percentage than the home team home winning percentage is +154.64. Arizona 6-1 the last seven. Yes, they are were at home, but this is a bad team, clearly not “quitting” as some people foolishly think and carrying momentum making our super system stronger. They were dogs of 140 or more in every game in that seven game stretch. They are hitting a whopping .366 last seven games with an .855 OPS. Our power line says Arizona should only be getting 140, which is a 3.8 percent edge.  

Strong NFL preseason bet, MLB runline on the Friday portfolio. Joe Duffy is widely accepted as the top college and pro football handicapper in history, hands down. Lock into at least the three-day pick pack. Big NFL day tomorrow, plus so many of our best MLB systems based on same-series adjustments all at PicksDepot.com  

Scorephone style trends report for the games of Sunday, August 28, 2021. These are from PicksDepot.com home of the world’s best sports picks. Betting ATS, over-under, and moneyline angles for Nebraska-Illinois, Hawaii-UCLA, UConn-Fresno St., Texas El Paso-New Mexico St. 

UTEP-New Mexico State

UTEP 12-5 favorites but 8-23 on turf both records ats 

New Mexico State 5-16 underdogs ats 

Favorite 7-0 in series ats 

UTEP 3-16 SU run -12.37 moneyline 

Nebraska-Illinois

Nebraska 2-6 favorites ats 

Nebraska under 6 straight road 

Illinois 3-7 overall ats; 4-13 on Saturdays 

Though Illinois 5-6 SU as underdogs on Saturdays, they are up 31.43 units on moneyline

Includes +22.1 units to Wisconsin and 5.18 to Nebraska 

Connecticut-Fresno State

UConn has lost nine in a row SU on moneyline 

Fresno only 5-10 SU on Saturdays -8.34 units 

Hawaii-UCLA 

Hawaii 14-9 SU last 23 for +5.38 units on moneyline

MLB

KANSAS CITY (MINOR +141) St. Louis (Wainwright)

Many of our angles say when the oddsmakers say it is their most winnable game in a while to go with what the oddsmakers are telling you. Yes, Royals have pulled off consecutive upsets, but six straight games they’ve been underdogs of 180 or more and eight straight of 155 or more. An angle that says to go with underdogs in a game in which the oddsmakers give them the most respect in recent play is 271-202 for 98.21 and an ROI of 20.6. Teams off consecutive wins of 180 or more are 45-42 +31.92 units and 36.3 ROI as long as they are not home dogs. Accuscore has KC +7.1 percent value. 

There is a clear-cut top side and equally obvious top total for Friday. After months of research, we spent a lot of money getting the best computer simulations, power ratings, and models. Get the PicksDepot winners immediately  

Top expert pick:Virtually everyone in the gambling industry, both sides of the window, will agree that Joe Duffy is the premier football handicapper who has ever lived. Hall-of-Fame Game side. Get night MLB and two day winners from Grandmaster. Get the PicksDepot winners immediately  

Steelers (-2, 33)-Cowboys 

64 percent of bets and 84 percent of money on Steelers. 

Steelers QB rotation: Mason Rudolph, Josh Dobbs, Dwayne Haskins. Haskins is looking very good in training camp and expected to battle for the No. 2 spot behind Ben Roethlisberger

Steelers OL is completely rebuilt after Maurkice Pouncey retired and Matt Feiler left

Pittsburgh made coaching changes on offensive side of ball and drafted Najee Harris in first round to improve running game

Cowboys QB rotation: Garrett Gilbert, Cooper Rush, and Ben DiNucci 

Free winning pick from Joe Duffy:

ARIZONA (WIDENER +180) San Francisco (DeSclanfani)

Regression to the mean, go with much less profitable team is +100.42. One of our power lines says Arizona should only be getting 153, hence they are nice value here. TeamRankings gives Arizona a decent 1.5 percent value on the line. EV Analytics gives us 45.31 chance of winning which is a 7.57 percent value on the line, a very strong bet. 

Top betting angles for August 2, 2021 from PicksDepot.com  

As starter:

Chris Flexen 11-2 +11.4 units with total 8.5-10

Andrew Heaney over 14-3

Anthony DeSclanfani under 8-0 road with total 8.5-10; under 22-7 last 3 years with said total overall

Team trends:

Seattle 51-36 underdogs +32.38 units

Tampa 109-63 +29.72

San Francisco 95-68 +28.61

Arizona 45-97 -44.96

Arizona 2-36 -34.2 units to pitchers averaging 5 or more Ks per start 

NY Yankees 4-14 -17.2 units away favorites in revenge 

Mariners 20-9 +19.4 units to AL starter with WHIP 1.2 or better

Mets 25-62 as favorites -39.27 units

Philadelphia 25-58 as favorites -32.55

Yankees 47-75 as favorites -32.27

Angels 30-54 as favorites -26.73

Nats under 62-38-3

The single greatest sustained winning streak rolls along at 643-413 on the MasterLockLine. New #1 MLB handicapper for 2021 is out of Midwest and his Featured Plays are above 65% this season. Featured Play Underdog of the Year on a night game. 

Service out of Rhode Island is bar none the premier run line service on earth over literally almost any long-term period. Day/Night Runline Parlay of the Year. Get the PicksDepot winners immediately