Momentum Most Important in College Football Betting

The reasons that sports betting supremacy is disproportionate to those who master computer software are infinite. Among them, it eradicates knee-jerk scientifically unsound proclivities. Whereas so many fundamental realities categorically cross sports, dubiously the most distinguishable exception is the consequence of momentum.

Expectedly, college sports are the outlier, while professional teams are more likely to bounce back. Not only are younger athletes more susceptible to be streaky, but also college sports are where bowl and tournament seedings induce “statement wins” to have tangible significance.

In the college football regular season, teams after a win of 36 points or more, when not playing a team off a win margin of 34 or more are 1486-1234-56 for 54.6 percent. However, time off hinders momentum, so when rested eight days or less, such teams are 1315-1056-47. That’s an impressive 55.5 percent with an imposing sample size of about 2,400 games.

Unexplainably, when performed on neutral sites, it’s only 11-15-1. While there isn’t a clear-cut justification reason why—a small sample size is probable—when the game is played on the home field of one of the participants, the outcome is 1304-1041-46 for 55.6 percent.

Then again, we have explored the misconceptions about neutral field and court handicapping. Hence, eliminating those complexities is sound.

While “regression to the mean” is among our money machine declarations borne out by winning systems, not-so-fast on the collegiate gridiron. Of course, there are substantially more profitable subsets we have saved into the computer vaults.

Though the winning percentage is not substantial enough to harness without corroboration, the sample size makes it noteworthy that in the college football regular season, teams off a win are 5451-5179-217 when playing a team off a loss. However, when the team with more short-term momentum is clearly outmatched on the road (visiting underdogs of at least 22), said teams are just 65-96-5. Thus, excluding that cluster heightens the angle.

Bottom line, while so many principles, most notably counterintuitive ones, triumphantly crossbreeding into other sports, momentum is an eminent exclusion. Computer enhanced science-based conclusions should always override assumptions and agendas.

Home Field Advantage: Will It Exist For Bettors in Empty Stadiums?

Sports are coming back. I think. Well, I hope.

My handicapping is evidence informed validated with statistically meaningful proof. Most sports will conduct business on home fields, as opposed to the NBA and NHL, which will compete in bubble situations and hub cities. But the stadiums and arenas will be played absent of fans for the foreseeable future.

Indubitably, the definitive gambling issue is how will this affect many of our systems that are site explicit? On one hand, would could argue the absence of fans reduces HFA (home field advantage). Conversely, the unprecedented world situation should make the comfort of home, security of sleeping in one’s own bed, that much more considerable.

My educated opinion is there won’t be a big change in HFA. Most likely, there will be gross overreaction. Sites like Covers and Action Network will tell us statistically irrelevant minutia like the road team has covered seven of the first 10 games.

The citizenry is sure to pursue fool’s gold and ride early patterns. We will stay on course. Fortunately, our famed “math totals,” innovative principles that cross sports, are not site specific.

I am going to track patterns possibly shifting due to the uniqueness of the situation. Do not misinterpret that I will neglect the extraordinary circumstances. However, I am not going to induce knee-jerk amendments. Keep in mind, my advanced analytics measure oddsmaker over-adjustments and their reaction to the public outsmarting themselves. And that’s where my biggest edge will be.

From one of the greatest movies off all-time, It’s a Wonderful Life, Peter Bailey says, “Can’t you understand what’s happening here? Don’t you see what’s happening? Potter isn’t selling. Potter’s buying! And why? Because we’re panicky and he’s not. That’s why. He’s pickin’ up some bargains.”

There is a very good chance that will accurately describe my winnings in these exceptional circumstances.

NL MVP Award Winner

Baseball expert Jordan Duffy, a fantasy MLB expert, previews the NL MVP in his debut article.

With a 60-game season, ​many things become much more of a crapshoot. ​ ​The NL MVP was already going to be tricky to predict prior to COVID-19. Will an established, perennial all-star like Betts or Yelich win? Could Bellinger repeat his 2019? Or will a young phenom like Acuña or Soto rise above the competition?

With the small sample size of 60 games, what would normally be an ​insignificant ​hot/cold streak could be the difference between winning the MVP and not even being in the conversation.

My pick

Christian Yelich +700

I know what you are probably thinking: did you forget that Mookie Betts was traded to the Dodgers? No, I did not. ​Mookie Betts is the overwhelming favorite to win MVP after leaving Mike Trout’s shadow in the American League, but I decided to go with a bolder decision in Christian Yelich.

I went with Yelich as he is the superior offensive player, while Betts is more well-rounded. Although voters have become a lot better about considering every aspect of the game in recent years, defensive statistics are notoriously volatile and in a shortened season, voters will likely put a larger emphasis on offense.

There’s no question that Yelich is the real deal. Following his 2018 MVP campaign, Yelich put up another MVP caliber season in 2019 (and he likely would have repeated had a broken kneecap not cut his season short). His peripherals also have supported the results: 99th percentile for xwOBA and xSLG, and 98th percentile for xAVG and Exit Velocity, according to Statcast.

Honorable Mention: Mookie Betts (duh)

Big name ​to be avoid: Cody Bellinger

Cody Bellinger is coming off a huge year, ​which goes without saying considering he is the reigning MVP. Having just turned 25, he looks very appealing at first glance; however, his stats were heavily inflated by a very hot start.

Bellinger finished 2019 with 7.8 fWAR—tied with Yelich for the NL best—but 3.8 (~49%) of it came during his first 46 games. That was 1.0 fWAR ahead of Yelich, who ranked second at the time.

In his remaining 110 games, he played much more like the Cody Bellinger we had seen in previous years. Although still very good, it’s not MVP material. He put up 4.0 fWAR—which was good for 18th in the MLB and 9th in the NL in that timespan. He slashed .263/.373/.562 for a wRC+ of 136.

Those numbers closely reflect his career numbers prior to 2019: ​.263/.347/.522 and a wRC+ of 128.

Complete odds:

Mookie Betts +285
Ronald Acuna Jr. +600
Christian Yelich +700
Juan Soto +800
Bryce Harper +1200
Cody Bellinger+1200
Fernando Tatís Jr. +1200
Javier Baez +1800
Ketel Marte +2000
Nolan Arenado +2000
Peter Alonso +2000
Kris Bryant +3000
Paul Goldschmidt +3000
Eugenio Suarez +3500
Jacob DeGrom +3500
Manny Machado +3500
Rhys Hoskins +4000
Max Scherzer +4500
Trevor Story +5000
Anthony Rizzo +6000
Andrew McCutchen +8000
Nicholas Castellanos +8000

ACC and Big Ten Tournament News, Notes, ATS Picks

UNC (-3.5, 142) vs VT

Lower seeded team is favorite though game is in Greensboro 

UNC travels 43 miles, VA Tech just 87

North Carolina made only seven 3-pointers on 22 attempts while the Hokies went 14 for 37 behind the arc en route to a 79-77 victory.

Neutral court favorites of 3.5 or more in revenge of same season loss is 216-164-11 (UNC)

Heels as healthy as they have been all season 

After losing 13 of their first 16 ACC games, the Tar Heels have won three of their last four games.

The Tar Heels did not have point guard Cole Anthony and guard Brandon Robinson in 2 OT loss to VA Tech because of injuries.

–Anthony, who is averaging 19.6 points and 4.0 assists, made the All-ACC third team and the ACC all-freshman team Monday. Robinson averages 11.9 points.

–UNC zero fast break points in first meeting, but that will change 

82 percent of early bets on UNC

Independent computer predictions: UNC 70-69, 70-66,72-69

The pick: UNC

Pitt vs Wake (-1,139)

Pitt traveling 302 miles, Wake just 25

Pitt lost to Wake Forest in January at Petersen Events Center after leading the Demon Deacons by 16 points in the first half. 

Pitt 17th at forcing turnovers -live betting

Pitt has won an ACC tournament game three of last four years, with Wake just once since 2014

Independent computer predictions: Wake Forest 70-69, 68-68, 71-69

The pick: Pittsburgh 

Indiana-Nebraska (-12.5, 143.5)

Nebraska has lot 16 straight

Teams that lost at least 16 in a row and not playing on opponents home court are 49-32 fade (Indiana) and 87-62 if lost 14 straight 

Neutral court teams in losing streaks of nine or more not laying points are 27-20 (Nebraska) but 2-7 last two years

Nebraska traveled 558 miles, Indiana 46

Indiana won both meetings, but on in OT, the other by 8

Indiana just 12-22 all-time SU tournament 

Dachon Burke and Cam Mack both questionable with suspensions 

Burke started 27 of 29 games

-Burke 12.2 *****The premium pick is, 3.4 rebounds 

–Mack 12 ppg, 4.5 boards, 6.4 assists 

Independent computer predictions: Indiana 77-67, 78-66, 78-67

The pick: Indiana 

Friday Betting Notes and Free Picks

CBB

Buffalo at Bowling Green (-1, 156)

Bowling Green has won its last seven home games, scoring an average of 71.1 points while giving up 66.3.

Buffalo playing for a bye, while Bowling Green clinched

At 21-9, Bowling Green can’t afford to lose if want at-large bid

Independent computer predictions: Bowling Green 79-76, 78-76, 80-78

The pick: Bowling Green 

Georgia Tech at Clemson (-4.5, 130)

Tech won first by nine

Though team that won first generally good play in second game, not as much here

Independent computer predictions: Clemson 65-61, 64-61, 65-62 (All under)

The pick: UNDER 

Quick Hitters

Wake Forest at NC State (-8.5, 152.5)

Seniors coring 78 percent of NC State’s point and 89 last five games

Wake Forest has lost its last seven road games, scoring 70.4 points, while allowing 82.3 per game.

NC State perfectly on bubble, so need a blowout 

Independent computer predictions: NC State 79-72, 80-72, 79-73

The pick: NC State 

VCU at Davidson (-2.5, 135) 

VCU has dropped its last four road games, scoring 62 points and allowing 76 points during those contests. Davidson has won its last six home games, scoring an average of 75.7 points while giving up 55.8.

Independent computer predictions: Davidson 70-67, 69-66, 70-67

The winner: Davidson 

Sports Betting Inside Information From #1 Ranked Handicapper

Notes: 
Dallas and Milwaukee both playing front end of back-to-back games, while Lakers and Golden State are playing back end of back-to-back games. New Orleans, LA Clippers, and Sacramento have big edges in terms of recent travel.  

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee; SMU

Free NBA pick:

SACRAMENTO -7.5 Detroit

Big home favorites in revenge of same-season blowout loss are 758-625-35 including excactly 60 percent since 2013. 

Critical NBA injuries 

Luka Doncic DAL @ MIN, questionable 

Serge Ibaka, TOR @ DEN, questionable 

Christian Wood, DET @ SAC, questionable 

Fred VanVleet TOR @ DEN, questionable 

Danny Green, LAL @ NO, questionable 

Jordan Poole, GS vs WAS, questionable 

De’Aaron Fox  SAC vs DET, questionable 

Khris Middleton MIL @ CHR Probable 

Draymond Green GS vs WAS, questionable 

Paul Millsap, DEN vs TOR, questionable 

Free Picks and Inside Info Friday Betting

CBB

Wright St at Northern Kentucky (-3.5. 145.5)

Wright State won by 32 in first meeting

Though team won first meeting generally the good bet, about 50-50 if team lost by 30 or more and are favorites in rematch 

NKU gotten healthy while WSU sliding after 9-1 start

Dantez Walton is NKU’s leading scorer

–14-4 SU with him, 7-4 without 

Wright State is deep and loves to play fast 

The pick: Northern Kentucky 

Washington St at Washington (-9.5.137)

Washington just snapped nine-game losing streak 

Fade home teams off a win that snapped a losing streak of nine or more is 62-48 (Washington State)

WSU expected to get back starting point guard Isaac Bonton, who missed three games

— Bonton averages 14.8 points and 4.0 assists per game

The pick: Washingotn State 

Texas St at UT Arlington (-1, 134)

Independent computer predictions: UT Arlington 66-65, 65-65, 66-65

The pick: UNDER 

Davidson at Dayton (-11, 141)

Dayton won 15 straight by average of 20 ppg 

Cain’t manufacture emotion 

National TV, plus Davidson a named team in that traditional miid-major power 

Vitale going to be there

Gary and Gudmundsson 

Dayton’s only two losses in OT

The pick: Dayton 

Gambler’s Report With Free Picks Today, Critical Injuries for Bettors

Super sharp report for February 26. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: LA Clippers 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia, LA Clippers 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Pittsburgh opened +1.5 now -1

Free NBA pick:

PHILADELPHIA -8 Cleveland

Big away favorites versus opponent off win is 478-320-14. 

NBA injuries:

Andre Drummond, CLE vs PHI , Out

Trae Young, ATL vs ORL, Questionable 

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs MIN, Questionable 

LaMarcus Aldridge, SAN vs DAL, Out

Elfrid Payton, NY @ CHR, Doubtful

Eric Gordon, HOU vs MEM, Out

Dewayne Dedmon, ATL vs ORL, Doubtful

Top Sports Bettor With College Basketball Locks

Joe Duffy with four free winning sports picks. 

NCST at UNC (-2.5, 145) 

UNC seven straight conference losses 

UNC 77 percent of scoring from senior, including 85 percent last five games

Home teams lost seven or more straight good fade at 560-515-29, even better in conference play

Independent computer predictions: NC State 73-72, 72-72; 73-72

The pick: NC State 

Iowa at MSU (-7, 152) 

Iowa F Luka Garza 23.7 ppg, 9.6 rebounds 

-MSU Marcus Bingham Jr. has played well against elite big men 

Michigan State can counter with small ball line-up and make Garza run 

MSU get support from players other than Cassius Winston or Xavier Tillman versus Nebraska 

Look for MSU to go with smaller line-up and build on secondary scoring

Independent computer predictions: MSU 79-73;79-71; 78-73

The pick: OVER 

Kanas St. at  Baylor) (-15, 124.5) 

Kansas State lost eight straight road by 10 ppg 

Baylor among best defense and K State horrible on offense 

Fading teams off loss, snapping a winning streak of 12 or more is 114-77-5 (Kansas State)

Large underdogs in a game expected to be low-scoring 305-264-14

Computer likes fave 

Independent computer predictions: Baylor 70-53; 70-52, 72-49

The pick: Kansas State

Duke (-11, 150) at Wake Forest

Duke 12-0 series by 15 ppg

Devils freshman 55 percent of scoring including 62 last five games

Teams that won first meeting by at least 31 are 741-637-23 (Duke)

-54.5 percent when laying at least nine points in rematch (though better if rematch is at home)

Independent computer predictions: Duke 80-70; 84-69, 80-71

The pick: Duke

USA Legal Sportsbooks Do Not Want You To See

NBA injuries

Luka Doncic, DAL vs MIN, probable

Deandre Ayton, PHX @ UTA, probable

D’Angelo Russell, MIN @ DAL , Confirmed

Paul George, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Tobias Harris, PHI vs ATL, questionable

Patrick Beverley, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Elfrid Payton, NY @ HOU, questionable

Kevin Love, CLE vs MIA, probable

As far as sharp bets, not a ton to report. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free NBA pick:

UTAH -8 Phoenix 

The Suns have a better road record than they have road mark. Now they are big road underdogs to a team that lost two straight and is 4-7 last 11 outright. The dog must be a great play right? Not so fast!

Go against road teams that have played better on the road than at home is 132-75-7. Fairly big favorites, quality teams in a losing streak are 245-169-9.