USA Legal Sportsbooks Do Not Want You To See

NBA injuries

Luka Doncic, DAL vs MIN, probable

Deandre Ayton, PHX @ UTA, probable

D’Angelo Russell, MIN @ DAL , Confirmed

Paul George, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Tobias Harris, PHI vs ATL, questionable

Patrick Beverley, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Elfrid Payton, NY @ HOU, questionable

Kevin Love, CLE vs MIA, probable

As far as sharp bets, not a ton to report. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free NBA pick:

UTAH -8 Phoenix 

The Suns have a better road record than they have road mark. Now they are big road underdogs to a team that lost two straight and is 4-7 last 11 outright. The dog must be a great play right? Not so fast!

Go against road teams that have played better on the road than at home is 132-75-7. Fairly big favorites, quality teams in a losing streak are 245-169-9.  

Fantasy NBA Injuries, Free Sports Pick, Line Trackers

NBA Injuries:

Ben Simmons, PHI vs BKN, Questionable 

De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs MIA, Questionable 

Kevin Huerter, ATL vs MIA, Probable 

Eric Gordon, HOU @ GS, Questionable 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Milwaukee; 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Troy, Belmont, UC Davis 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free college basketball winner on SANTA CLARA  +14.5 to byu

High volume based on rebounds, field goal percentage of last game is 1896-1545-84. 

Tuesday Critical Betting News, Notes

Illinois at Penn State (-7, 141)

Illinois lost four straight off seven game winning streak. Such teams are 25-14-1 for 64.1 percent (Illinois)

Penn State won eight straight 

Road teams lost at least four straight versus opponent won at least seven straight are 69-49-3

Lamar Stevens, is the PSU top scorer averaging 17.7 points per game. Stevens is averaging just over 21 points in his last eight games

Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn is 6-9 and goes against small PSU frontline

Cockburn is currently averaging 13.6 ppg but has averaged just 8.3 points in the last four games

Ayo Dosunmu, soph is leading scorer for Illinois but questionable

Independent computer predictions: Penn State 74-67, 76-66, 76-67

The pick: Illinois +7

Oklahoma St at WVU (-11, 135)

OSU seniors have combined to account for 59 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 62 percent of all Cowboys points over the team’s last five games

How will they score to WVU? The West Virginia defense has allowed only 61.8 points per game to opponents this season, ranking the Mountaineers 19th among Division I teams. The Oklahoma State offense has averaged 67.2 points through 25 games (ranked 261st, nationally).

The Mountaineers not being able to total 60 points in their current losing streak. They have been plagued by a combination of poor shooting and turnovers, averaging 42% from the field and 30% from three, while also committing over 15 turnovers per game.

Independent computer predictions: WVU 73-61, 74-58, 72-60 (all under)

The pick: UNDER

Pitt at FSU (-12, 135.5)

Independent computer predictions: FSU 72-60, 72-59, 73-61

FSU won 21-of-24 SU

Underdogs of 12 or more with 15 or more wins and at least three games above .500 solid 263-221-11 for 54.2 percent including 56.5 percent road

The pick: UNDER

Creighton at Marquette (-3.5, 153.5)

Marquette seniors collectively accounted for 73 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 78 percent of all Golden Eagles points over the last five games.

Marquette has won its last four home games, scoring an average of 79.8 points while giving up 65.5

Creighton great at protecting ball, though Marquette does not force a lot of turnovers 

Creighton has won 7-of-8 SU, including road wins at No. 8 Villanova and No. 10 Seton Hall 

Independent computer predictions: Marquette 79-76, 78-77, 79-77

The pick: Creighton 

Winning Totals is Somewhere Under the Rainbow

In the 2019-20 college football season, twice I lost unders in overtime in spite of concluding regulation more than 30 points under the total. And they were far from the only totals just in said season that didn’t go over the total until multiple overtimes with me being on the excruciating end of a bad beat.  

I’ve heard even some fairly sharp gamblers renounce wagering on unders, especially in college football. Of course, it’s immeasurably more desirable to bet an over from a rooting standpoint. A game can go over long before the game ended, but an under is never, well under until it’s…well over. 

After I suffered that second 30something point overtime to rip my heart out, a sharp gambler who I’ve known for decades gave me the cliched, “You just have to hope they even out over time.” 

Probably not the case for me in college football, but that’s okay. A majority of my greatest systems betting college football totals favor the under. 

In every sport, the under comes in more than 50 percent of the time, not shockingly college football at the highest rate. Though it’s a modest 51.5 percent, it’s also over more than 12,600 games. Oh, and I have plenty of over systems too. 

Betting unders, sports gambling secrets revealed

The reason is simple. A disproportionate percentage of bad beats are on overs because of overtime (or extra innings), bombing and fouling in college basketball and NBA, hurry-up offenses at the end of football games, topping a list. Because of the college football overtime rules, unders can be heartbreaks on steroids. 

I’ve seen even reasonable gamblers say they won’t bet unders, especially in college football because of the inevitable anguish. I’ve warned against charging yourself “phycological juice.” Yes, a loss betting on horrible teams, against top squads, or betting an under, which was on pace to win easily most of the way, only to collapse at the end, all “seems” to hurt more. 

Underophobia by many gamblers, creates opportunities for the sharps, because the books must adjust for over bias. I cannot not stress enough, a triple overtime loss on the under is excruciating, but never bet with a broken heart. The added opportunities that overlay creates is our compensation. 

You have heard the slogan, “No pain, no gain.” It’s so true in gambling. The toughest bets to root for so often produce the best results. When handicapping totals, the best handicappers so often win under pressure…so to speak. 

Friday College Basketball Gambling Notes

Yale (-4.5, 137) at Princeton

The Tigers have allowed just 63.7 points per game across six conference games, an improvement from the 76.7 per game they gave up in non-conference play.

Princeton has won its last five home games, scoring an average of 71.4 points while giving up 54.8.

Yale defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 37.9 percent, the 11th-best mark in the country. Princeton has allowed opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field through 19 games 

Independent computer predictions: Yale 72-66, 71-65, 75-67 (all by at least 6)

The pick: YALE 

Akron (-5, 155) at Central Michigan

Akron has gone 4-2 in their past six games. In those wins, they’ve allowed 40 percent shooting. 

Top two defensive teams in conference 

UA will play four of their next five games on the road. So far, they’re 5-3 away from Rhodes Arena

Independent computer predictions: Akron 82-76, 82-77, 81-76 (All 157 or more)

The pick: OVER 

UIC at Wright St (-11, 148)

Wright State big fave on revenge, but no edge either way

Wright State has won its last nine home games, scoring an average of 86.6 points while giving up 68.9.

Wright State great at protecting ball, while UIC not good forcing turnovers 

Independent computer predictions: Wright State 79-67,81-66, 78-68

Rider at Siena (-5.5, 148)

Siena 10-0 SU home


Independent computer predictions: Siena 78-73, 79-72, 76-72

Critical College Basketball Betting News For Gamblers

News and notes section from Joe Duffy, Grandmaster Sports Handicapper. 

Memphis at Cincy (-6.5, 139)

Precious Achiuwa Memphis limited Saturday to 18 minutes with injury 

—His 12 double-doubles top among freshman in nation 


–Since 12-21 stepped up his game

Cincinnati had five-game winning streak snapped in OT

—Fading teams off an overtime loss snapping at least a 5-game win streak is 95-71 if team betting is not off OT game (Memphis)

—3 or more game winning streak 253-170-5

Independent computer predictions:  Cincinnati 72-65, 71-65, 72-66

The pick: Memphis 

Iowa at Indiana (-1, 149)

Indiana on 4-game losing streak to fall on wrong side of bubble 

Teams with winning percentage of .650 or higher on a 4-game losing streak solid 61-48-1 (Indiana)

Independent computer predictions: Iowa 76-75, 76-73, 75-73

The pick: Iowa

Colorado at Oregon (-3.5, 139)

Oregon’s Payton Pritchard outstanding all-around player but McKinley Wright is able to guard him well one-on-one, making it tough for other players to beat them

CU’s bench just 15 points last two games, but been erratic all year, so capable of bouncing back

Colorado has been struggling in first half lately, but making halftime adjustments 

Oregon gets Francis Okoro back after missing his size when he returned to Nigeria for father’s funeral 

But Ducks N’Faly Dante, 6-11 monster still out

Independent computer predictions: Oregon 71-68, 69-66, 72-69

The pick: Colorado 

Washington State at UCLA (-8, 137)

Washington State exceeded last season’s win total behind play of CJ Elleby

Independent computer predictions: USC 69-66, UCLA 70-64, 70-65

The pick: Washington State 

NBA Betting News and Notes

Not a big NBA portfolio, but critical info on tonight’s card. 

Jaylen Brown, Boston, will play at Houston

Brandon Ingram, New Orleans will play at home versus Portland 

Zach LaVine, Chicago, probable at Washington

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Washington Wizards; Northern Illinois

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Washington Wizards; Air Force

Free winner: 


LA CLIPPERS -1.5 Philadelphia

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak 639-499-16. 

NBA Free Pick, Winning Bets, Contrarian Intel

Free NBA pick:

ORLANDO -8.5 Atlanta

Big home favorites in same season revenge of blowout loss are 753-629-35. Yes, Atlanta has young legs but they are traveling off a double-overtime game last night. The record is 214-140-8 since 2012. 

Contrarian and public betting moves. Joe Duffy’s super sharp cheat sheet for Monday from Joe Duffy’s clipboard. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Florida State 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Detroit Pistons, Minnesota Timberwolves OVER

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Milwaukee opened -14.5 now -10.5, Orlando -6 now -5

Contrarian Pick Today, Free Computer System Bet, NBA Injuries

NBA injuries

Trae Young, ATL @ BOS, probable

Jimmy Butler, MIA @ SAC, doublful

Kristaps Porzingis, DAL @ WAS, questionable

Kemba Walker, BOS vs ATL, Confirmed

Jaylen Brown, BOS vs ATL, Out

Josh Richardson, PHI vs MEM , questionable

Richaun Holmes, SAC vs MIA, questionable

Jonas Valanciunas, MEM @ PHI, questionable

TJ Warren, IND vs TOR, questionable

Victor Oladipo, IND vs TOR, questionable

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Heat; 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Houston Rockets; Penn

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Miami Heat opened -1.5 now +1.5, Philadelphia -7 to -5, Dallas -2 to -4

Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy with a free pick

Free winner on:

DALLAS -2 Washington

Away favorites off loss under specific situations is 718-551-22.

Fantasy NBA and Sports Betting Injuries, Free Expert Picks

Major betting intel and free picks for Thursday, February 6. Free winners are from Grandmaster Joe Duffy. 

Critical injuries:

Zion Williamson will play for New Orleans

Russell Westbrook is questionable for Houston 

Anthony Davis probable for Lakers

New Orleans (-4,231.5) vs. Chicago

New Orleans 10-15 SU road, Chicago 11-15 SU home

When road team laying at least two on road despite not having better home/road splits they are 1600-1353-57 for 54.2 percent but nearly 250 games above .500

815-663-31 if won previous same-season meeting 

Zion Williamson first seven games, he is averaging 19.6 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 55% from the field and 44% on 3-point attempts

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 634-495-15


Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee (-9, 227)

Big quality underdogs on road are a fade of 771-612-36

Wake-up call as Simmons called Sixers soft 

Teams that are substantially better at home than on the road, actually good road bet and bad home bet (Sixers)

1023-959-44 only 51.8 but warning to not outsmart yourself 

Huge home favorites in same-season revenge of blowout loss 234-181-11 (Milwaukee)

Fade better than .600 teams off 30-point loss and losers of at least three straight is 5-1

Sixers first of back-to-back games

Sixers fourth straight road game, though spread over eight days

Road underdogs off three straight road losses are 320-241-17 (Sixers)

Big home favorites in same season revenge of blowout loss 752-628-35 including 213-139-8 since 2013


San Antonio vs. Portland (-3,232)

Blazers first of back-to-back games

Third of eight-straight road games for Spurs, while Portland second game in five days

Both teams off loss 25 or more goes over 57.6 percent of time


Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Wisconsin Green Bay; Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: UT Rio Grande Valley, Pepperdine; Portland Trail Blazers, Orlando 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Stanford opened +1 now -1