Free NBA Betting Picks, Fantasy NBA Injuries

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What a Thursday in NBA betting. These are news and notes from Joe Duffy, America’s only Grandmaster Sports Handicapper. Today’s news and notes starts out with intel for fantasy players and gamblers alike. 

NBA injuries

Patrick Beverley, LAC vs SAC, is probable

Marvin Bagley, SAC @ LAC is out

Al Horford, PHI @ ATL, is questionable 

Paul George, LAC vs SAC is probable

Jayson Tatum, BOS vs GS is questionable 

Utah-Denver (-1.5, 215)

Pick: UTAH

Charlotte-Washington (-3.5, 227)

Jordan McRea out for Washington 

Washington 6th game since 20th, but just fourth for Charlotte 

Bad teams as favorites of at least 3 good bets

Even better at 3.5

WASHINGTON 

Philadelphia (-7.5, 228)-Atlanta

DeAndre Bembry for Hawks is doubtful

More playing time for Brandon Goodwin

Alex Len out for Hawks

Miss third straight game

Bruno Fernando doubtful for Hawks

Missed Tuesday

With injuries, Hawks will go with smaller, quicker line-up with John Collins at center 

Both Mike Scott and Al Horford questionable 

Joel Embiid returned

Atlanta will get points with quick line-up but Embiid unstoppable down low

No free pick

Toronto (-10, 220)-Cleveland 

OG Anunoby will play for Toronto

Patrick McCaw questionable for Raptors

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will miss second straight game

Terrence Davis and Matt Thomas will see extra time for Raptors 

Marc Gasol out for Toronto

Serge Ibaka gets start 

Toronto front end of back-to-back 

Toronto fat and happy? Road faves of -8.5 or more on at least eight-game winning streak 50-26-2

30-10 since 2009

Pick: TORONTO 

Sports Gambling Report: Picks, Super Computer Systems Betting, NBA Injury Report

Betting picks report for Tuesday, January 28, 2020.Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has four free picks in college basketball.  Intel for both fantasy football and sports wagering.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New Orleans; Villanova, Florida, Virginia Tech, Rutgers 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Golden State, Atlanta, Cleveland UNDER; Virginia Tech, Villanova, George Mason

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Memphis Grizzlies; Georgetown

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free winning college basketball picks:

Pitt at Duke (-16, 137)

Duke 5th on defense, Pitt 115th on offense

Duke 2nd offense, Pitt 56th defense

Inconsistent freshman Matthew Hurt, 6-9 big man getting into groove for Duke 

Pittsburgh little depth in front court and Duke will attack inside 

Blue Devils wear them down 

Computer projections from three independent sources: Duke 80-57; 77-60; 75-59

Nova (-2,143) at St John’s 

Nova 19th in the nation on offensive efficiency, while St. Johns 38th on defense 

Nova 46th on defense. St. John’s 100th on offensive efficiency 

Red Storm has won 2-of-3 SU in series 

Villanova Jermaine Samuels (11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds) is questionable 

Home teams that have won three or less of previous 8 yet at least 8 games over .500 463-374-20 (Red Storm)

432-337-16 if not getting more than four points

Computer projections from three independent sources: Villanova 72-70; 73-71; 72-69

The pick: St. John’s +2

The pick: Duke -16

Purdue at Rutgers (-3, 123)

Rutgers No. 6 defense, Purdue 51st offense

Purdue 11th on defense, Rutgers 72nd on offense 

Hunted rather than hunter, top 25 for first time since 1979

Big home court edge 

Computer projections from three independent sources: Rutgers 58-55; 61-59; 63-58

The pick: UNDER

FSU at UVA (Virginia -1, 115)

Virginia needs signature win as on bubble 

Underdogs ranked 7th or higher yet underdogs to unranked team are 157-110-4 (FSU) and 21-5 last two years

First meeting many turnovers Virginia 18, FSU 16

Points tough to come by for both

Virginia 4th in defensive efficiency, while FSU 31st on offense 

FSU 37th in defensive efficiency, Virginia 236 on offense 

Virginia slowest pace in nation

Computer projections from three independent sources: FSU 55-54; 57-56; 57-55

The pick: Florida State

NBA injuries

Joel Embiid, PHI vs GS, Questionable 

Ricky Rubio, PHX at DAL, Questionable 

Jae Crowder, MEM vs DEN, Questionable 

Jayson Tatum, BOS at MIA, Doubtful

Free Pick College Basketball, Key NBA Injury Report

Added rotation college basketball winner in college basketball from superstar Joe Duffy. 

ARKANSAS PINE-BLUFF +15 Texas Southern 

Horrible road teams on the road is 1727-1514-67. Underdogs in a stretch of low-scoring games are 555-438-18. When both apply, it is 195-131-7. 

Contrarian and consensus intel: 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Heat, Dallas

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota Timberwolves 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Detroit Pistons

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none in NBA or college basketball 

Critical fantasy NBA and sports betting picks injury info. 

Tony Snell, DET vs CLE , questionable

Derrick Rose, DET vs CLE, probable

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs ORL, questionable

Bam Adebayo, MIA vs ORL, probable

Sports Betting Information: Free Picks, Sportsbook Consensus

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks is:

WASHINGTON +1 Atlanta 

Road teams playing a bad team and in a bad stretch of defensive efforts are undervalued at 126-74-1. Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 644-507-15. 

NBA Injuries for fantasy sports player and those who bet with US based sportsbooks. 

James Harden, HOU @ DEN is questionable

Jrue Holiday, NO vs BOS is probable

Jae Crowder, MEM vs PHX is doubtful

Jayson Tatum, BOS @ NO is questionable 

Jaylen Brown, BOS @ NO is questionable 

Patrick Beverley, LAC @ ORL is questionable 

Betting inside info from Joe Duffy’s clipboard. 

CBB

Michigan St (-4.5. 140) at Minnesota

Regression to mean angle is 971-798-30 (Michigan State) 

MSU 9-10 ats -.7

Minnesota 12-7 +4.9

Winning percentage is better in conference play

MSU 5th in offensive efficiency while Minnesota #51 on defense 

Minnesota 14th in offensive efficiency with MSU #21 on defense 

Maryland at Indiana (-2 -115, 131)

Maryland matches up well on defense ranked #7, compared to Indiana #43 on offense 

Indiana 45th defensive efficiency, while Indiana #52 on offense 

Both been much better at home than road 

Indiana under 7-1 last eight

Teams under at least 7-of-8 do stay under 4631-4403-142

NBA

Brooklyn (-1, 221.5)-New York

Nets playing back-to-back after playing in Detroit last night

Toronto (-2, 223.5)-San Antonio

San Antonio first of back-to-back games

Toronto won six straight but last loss to Spurs 

Favorites in at least six game winning streaks and in revenge are 146-124-8

Sunday sharp report: 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Memphis Grizzlies; Drake 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies; Drake, Houston Cougars 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Portland, Denver; Evansville 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: NY Knicks opened +1.5 now -1.5; Manhattan opened -1 now +1.5

Are You Handicapped Without a Handicapper?

It’s a conundrum that many ATS fortune hunters face.  Sports gambling can be a great leisurely activity for all, but for the well-versed sports prophesier, it can be a lucrative enterprise. 

There are sharpies and wise guys who do make a lot of money sports gambling, but it takes the ability to both line-shop and forebode the outcome of games to make it profitable.  

While my clients’ line-tracking skills are their own, the most important doomsday machine that an odds protégée can harbor is knowing the right sides and totals to monitor. RatedSportsbooks.com is new, but soon you will find endless articles on the intel needed for advantageous prophecy, but as the musician was told on the way to Carnegie Hall, the only solution is practice, practice, and practice. 

Let there be no doubt that there are a limited number of qualified professional handicapping experts. Unfortunately the consumer is forced to ferret through the much more commonplace coin flippers with a grandiloquent sales pitch before unearthing the maestro confidants.

Too often desperate gamblers are clay pigeons for a windbag who talks the talk, but cannot walk the walk. Sometimes the other extreme happens. Ironically so many clients thinking they are suave patrons fall prey to the wolves in sheep’s clothing.

They are bamboozled into thinking virtuous means a virtuoso.  It befuddles me how these people are the most easily hoodwinked considering how they present themselves as the more discriminating shoppers of sports investment advisors. 

I have seen on Internet posting boards for example online casino gamblers assign credibility to handicappers using the bottom rung criterion of merely admitting to losing days. Any huckster can merely come clean on heads covering when he picked tails. Professional gamblers can only sneer at such easily mislead gamblers who keep the bookmakers in business for the rest of us.

The polished magnate is much more concerned with handicappers who have few losers to proclaim than those who think sportsbooks are merely confessional booths.  “Bookmaker forgive me for I have lost, it has been three weeks since my last winner.”  If you can find a bookmaker who accepts “Hail Marys” and “Our Fathers” as payment, more power to you. The rest of you, I would implore you to set the bar much higher when purchasing advice.

In Advertising 101, they teach to “Sell the sizzle and not the steak.”  But there really is no correlation between hard-sell/soft-peddle and legitimate/illegitimate in this field. 

Let me elaborate though. This is not to say that one should give merit to the notorious

Betting Low-Profile College Football Games Handicapping Secret

I so often hear chic sports fans and handicappers talk about games being won “at the point of attack”. I know of one handicapper who constantly screams he doesn’t care about the skilled position players; he loves the “lunch pail” guys. If it were only true handicapping would be so easy because all we’d do is bet injury information line moves.  When was the last time you saw an injury to an offensive lineman take a game off the board, circled or have the line significantly adjusted? Still thinking of one, eh? On the other hand, when was the last time a major change in regards to a 1,500 yard rusher did not have a huge effect on a line? 

So if the “lunch pail” banalities were true, any time a line is adjusted to compensate for a quarterback’s injury all we’d have to do is bet with the affected team because a line move of major proportions would be unjustified. Conversely any time an All-SEC offensive lineman was out, we would bet the other team because the linesmakers did not counterbalance enough. The sharp players would be those who value “lunch pail” players more than the linesmakers do. Bad news folks, the oddsmakers know what they are doing by reorienting much more to a quarterback’s status than even that of an All-American right tackle. 

The illustrious teams in college football have few weaknesses and with almost no exception have great depth.  Hence very often an injury to a key player will result in public overreaction in betting the college football odds because his replacement is nary a drop off.  Florida State for example just pencils another pro prospect into the starting line-up. 

When it comes to the elite non-BCS teams, they are almost always dominated by players at skilled positions, especially at QB.  

Do you think it’s a coincidence that BYU’s great run ended once they stopped sending every QB to the NFL? Take a look at when LA Tech, and Central Florida had their best seasons.  Sorry you won’t see a Cinderella team with a bunch of mediocre skilled position players.  

So what is our point as far as handicapping?  The top notch teams at that level will not have major injuries that sneak under the radar. However the injury and suspension information that often is inconspicuous to the books are with the middle rung to bottom feeding smaller conference teams. 

Injuries to three or four key players at the so called non-skilled positions can be immeasurably more deleterious to a team like Arkansas State than they would be to Arkansas. The often overlooked facet of handicapping injuries is anticipating the improvement when key personnel return.  This is only multiplied with the Louisiana Monroe’s of the world. 

The only thing Joe Public likes to bet less than crappy teams is bad teams from inferior conferences. Hence with all the factors mentioned above the most common source of injury related off-lines occur in the Sun Belt or even WAC, Mountain West and MAC second and third tier teams.  In the battle of a 3-5 team laying 11 points to an 0-8 squad the spread difference can occur and so often does in situations analogous to the winless team playing with their offensive line and front seven healthy for only the second time all year, while the chalk has two hurting starting linebackers. The M*A*S*H reports not only of  injured but also of recovered little publicized  key players of the sub-.500 non-BCS teams are where the most esteemed sharpie handicapping choice morsels are found.  

You keep searching the injury wire and betting blogs  for the status of a USC guaranteed first-round NFL selection.  We will cash the ticket getting hold of accurate information on the third-team and honorable mention All-Sun Belt players. Therein lays the unperceived choice bits.   

Super Bowl News and Notes, Niners-Chiefs

Niners vs. Chiefs

82 percent of bets, 84 percent of money on OVER

52 percent of bets, 52 percent of money on Kansas City 

Teams that won at least 9-of-10 SU yet not laying at least a FG are a go-against 48-23 including 2-1 in Super Bowl (San Francisco) 

Super Bowl teams with lower winning percentage but not big dog are 11-1 (KC)

Fade better rushing team late in season and playoffs is 86-52-2 (favors KC) 

In the playoffs, fade drastically improved teams from previous year is 30-15

San Francisco gets 7.9 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.8

KC passes for 7.9 yards per pass teams normally allowing 6.9

Niners hold teams to .8 yards per play below normal average, KC .2 below

Tevin Coleman RB questionable 

137 rushing attempts for 544 yards, 6 TDs, 180 yards receiving 

ATS trends:

KC 8-0 ats explosion

OU trends:

San Francisco over 9-3

Teaser:

KC 38-1 on ten-point teaser when averaging 27 or more previous three games