ACC and Big Ten Tournament News, Notes, ATS Picks

UNC (-3.5, 142) vs VT

Lower seeded team is favorite though game is in Greensboro 

UNC travels 43 miles, VA Tech just 87

North Carolina made only seven 3-pointers on 22 attempts while the Hokies went 14 for 37 behind the arc en route to a 79-77 victory.

Neutral court favorites of 3.5 or more in revenge of same season loss is 216-164-11 (UNC)

Heels as healthy as they have been all season 

After losing 13 of their first 16 ACC games, the Tar Heels have won three of their last four games.

The Tar Heels did not have point guard Cole Anthony and guard Brandon Robinson in 2 OT loss to VA Tech because of injuries.

–Anthony, who is averaging 19.6 points and 4.0 assists, made the All-ACC third team and the ACC all-freshman team Monday. Robinson averages 11.9 points.

–UNC zero fast break points in first meeting, but that will change 

82 percent of early bets on UNC

Independent computer predictions: UNC 70-69, 70-66,72-69

The pick: UNC

Pitt vs Wake (-1,139)

Pitt traveling 302 miles, Wake just 25

Pitt lost to Wake Forest in January at Petersen Events Center after leading the Demon Deacons by 16 points in the first half. 

Pitt 17th at forcing turnovers -live betting

Pitt has won an ACC tournament game three of last four years, with Wake just once since 2014

Independent computer predictions: Wake Forest 70-69, 68-68, 71-69

The pick: Pittsburgh 

Indiana-Nebraska (-12.5, 143.5)

Nebraska has lot 16 straight

Teams that lost at least 16 in a row and not playing on opponents home court are 49-32 fade (Indiana) and 87-62 if lost 14 straight 

Neutral court teams in losing streaks of nine or more not laying points are 27-20 (Nebraska) but 2-7 last two years

Nebraska traveled 558 miles, Indiana 46

Indiana won both meetings, but on in OT, the other by 8

Indiana just 12-22 all-time SU tournament 

Dachon Burke and Cam Mack both questionable with suspensions 

Burke started 27 of 29 games

-Burke 12.2 *****The premium pick is, 3.4 rebounds 

–Mack 12 ppg, 4.5 boards, 6.4 assists 

Independent computer predictions: Indiana 77-67, 78-66, 78-67

The pick: Indiana 

Friday Betting Notes and Free Picks

CBB

Buffalo at Bowling Green (-1, 156)

Bowling Green has won its last seven home games, scoring an average of 71.1 points while giving up 66.3.

Buffalo playing for a bye, while Bowling Green clinched

At 21-9, Bowling Green can’t afford to lose if want at-large bid

Independent computer predictions: Bowling Green 79-76, 78-76, 80-78

The pick: Bowling Green 

Georgia Tech at Clemson (-4.5, 130)

Tech won first by nine

Though team that won first generally good play in second game, not as much here

Independent computer predictions: Clemson 65-61, 64-61, 65-62 (All under)

The pick: UNDER 

Quick Hitters

Wake Forest at NC State (-8.5, 152.5)

Seniors coring 78 percent of NC State’s point and 89 last five games

Wake Forest has lost its last seven road games, scoring 70.4 points, while allowing 82.3 per game.

NC State perfectly on bubble, so need a blowout 

Independent computer predictions: NC State 79-72, 80-72, 79-73

The pick: NC State 

VCU at Davidson (-2.5, 135) 

VCU has dropped its last four road games, scoring 62 points and allowing 76 points during those contests. Davidson has won its last six home games, scoring an average of 75.7 points while giving up 55.8.

Independent computer predictions: Davidson 70-67, 69-66, 70-67

The winner: Davidson 

Sports Betting Inside Information From #1 Ranked Handicapper

Notes: 
Dallas and Milwaukee both playing front end of back-to-back games, while Lakers and Golden State are playing back end of back-to-back games. New Orleans, LA Clippers, and Sacramento have big edges in terms of recent travel.  

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee; SMU

Free NBA pick:

SACRAMENTO -7.5 Detroit

Big home favorites in revenge of same-season blowout loss are 758-625-35 including excactly 60 percent since 2013. 

Critical NBA injuries 

Luka Doncic DAL @ MIN, questionable 

Serge Ibaka, TOR @ DEN, questionable 

Christian Wood, DET @ SAC, questionable 

Fred VanVleet TOR @ DEN, questionable 

Danny Green, LAL @ NO, questionable 

Jordan Poole, GS vs WAS, questionable 

De’Aaron Fox  SAC vs DET, questionable 

Khris Middleton MIL @ CHR Probable 

Draymond Green GS vs WAS, questionable 

Paul Millsap, DEN vs TOR, questionable 

Free Picks and Inside Info Friday Betting

CBB

Wright St at Northern Kentucky (-3.5. 145.5)

Wright State won by 32 in first meeting

Though team won first meeting generally the good bet, about 50-50 if team lost by 30 or more and are favorites in rematch 

NKU gotten healthy while WSU sliding after 9-1 start

Dantez Walton is NKU’s leading scorer

–14-4 SU with him, 7-4 without 

Wright State is deep and loves to play fast 

The pick: Northern Kentucky 

Washington St at Washington (-9.5.137)

Washington just snapped nine-game losing streak 

Fade home teams off a win that snapped a losing streak of nine or more is 62-48 (Washington State)

WSU expected to get back starting point guard Isaac Bonton, who missed three games

— Bonton averages 14.8 points and 4.0 assists per game

The pick: Washingotn State 

Texas St at UT Arlington (-1, 134)

Independent computer predictions: UT Arlington 66-65, 65-65, 66-65

The pick: UNDER 

Davidson at Dayton (-11, 141)

Dayton won 15 straight by average of 20 ppg 

Cain’t manufacture emotion 

National TV, plus Davidson a named team in that traditional miid-major power 

Vitale going to be there

Gary and Gudmundsson 

Dayton’s only two losses in OT

The pick: Dayton 

Gambler’s Report With Free Picks Today, Critical Injuries for Bettors

Super sharp report for February 26. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: LA Clippers 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Philadelphia, LA Clippers 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Pittsburgh opened +1.5 now -1

Free NBA pick:

PHILADELPHIA -8 Cleveland

Big away favorites versus opponent off win is 478-320-14. 

NBA injuries:

Andre Drummond, CLE vs PHI , Out

Trae Young, ATL vs ORL, Questionable 

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs MIN, Questionable 

LaMarcus Aldridge, SAN vs DAL, Out

Elfrid Payton, NY @ CHR, Doubtful

Eric Gordon, HOU vs MEM, Out

Dewayne Dedmon, ATL vs ORL, Doubtful

Top Sports Bettor With College Basketball Locks

Joe Duffy with four free winning sports picks. 

NCST at UNC (-2.5, 145) 

UNC seven straight conference losses 

UNC 77 percent of scoring from senior, including 85 percent last five games

Home teams lost seven or more straight good fade at 560-515-29, even better in conference play

Independent computer predictions: NC State 73-72, 72-72; 73-72

The pick: NC State 

Iowa at MSU (-7, 152) 

Iowa F Luka Garza 23.7 ppg, 9.6 rebounds 

-MSU Marcus Bingham Jr. has played well against elite big men 

Michigan State can counter with small ball line-up and make Garza run 

MSU get support from players other than Cassius Winston or Xavier Tillman versus Nebraska 

Look for MSU to go with smaller line-up and build on secondary scoring

Independent computer predictions: MSU 79-73;79-71; 78-73

The pick: OVER 

Kanas St. at  Baylor) (-15, 124.5) 

Kansas State lost eight straight road by 10 ppg 

Baylor among best defense and K State horrible on offense 

Fading teams off loss, snapping a winning streak of 12 or more is 114-77-5 (Kansas State)

Large underdogs in a game expected to be low-scoring 305-264-14

Computer likes fave 

Independent computer predictions: Baylor 70-53; 70-52, 72-49

The pick: Kansas State

Duke (-11, 150) at Wake Forest

Duke 12-0 series by 15 ppg

Devils freshman 55 percent of scoring including 62 last five games

Teams that won first meeting by at least 31 are 741-637-23 (Duke)

-54.5 percent when laying at least nine points in rematch (though better if rematch is at home)

Independent computer predictions: Duke 80-70; 84-69, 80-71

The pick: Duke

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NBA injuries

Luka Doncic, DAL vs MIN, probable

Deandre Ayton, PHX @ UTA, probable

D’Angelo Russell, MIN @ DAL , Confirmed

Paul George, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Tobias Harris, PHI vs ATL, questionable

Patrick Beverley, LAC vs MEM, questionable

Elfrid Payton, NY @ HOU, questionable

Kevin Love, CLE vs MIA, probable

As far as sharp bets, not a ton to report. 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: none

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Milwaukee 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free NBA pick:

UTAH -8 Phoenix 

The Suns have a better road record than they have road mark. Now they are big road underdogs to a team that lost two straight and is 4-7 last 11 outright. The dog must be a great play right? Not so fast!

Go against road teams that have played better on the road than at home is 132-75-7. Fairly big favorites, quality teams in a losing streak are 245-169-9.  

Fantasy NBA Injuries, Free Sports Pick, Line Trackers

NBA Injuries:

Ben Simmons, PHI vs BKN, Questionable 

De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs MIA, Questionable 

Kevin Huerter, ATL vs MIA, Probable 

Eric Gordon, HOU @ GS, Questionable 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Milwaukee; 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Troy, Belmont, UC Davis 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free college basketball winner on SANTA CLARA  +14.5 to byu

High volume based on rebounds, field goal percentage of last game is 1896-1545-84. 

Tuesday Critical Betting News, Notes

Illinois at Penn State (-7, 141)

Illinois lost four straight off seven game winning streak. Such teams are 25-14-1 for 64.1 percent (Illinois)

Penn State won eight straight 

Road teams lost at least four straight versus opponent won at least seven straight are 69-49-3

Lamar Stevens, is the PSU top scorer averaging 17.7 points per game. Stevens is averaging just over 21 points in his last eight games

Illini freshman center Kofi Cockburn is 6-9 and goes against small PSU frontline

Cockburn is currently averaging 13.6 ppg but has averaged just 8.3 points in the last four games

Ayo Dosunmu, soph is leading scorer for Illinois but questionable

Independent computer predictions: Penn State 74-67, 76-66, 76-67

The pick: Illinois +7

Oklahoma St at WVU (-11, 135)

OSU seniors have combined to account for 59 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 62 percent of all Cowboys points over the team’s last five games

How will they score to WVU? The West Virginia defense has allowed only 61.8 points per game to opponents this season, ranking the Mountaineers 19th among Division I teams. The Oklahoma State offense has averaged 67.2 points through 25 games (ranked 261st, nationally).


The Mountaineers not being able to total 60 points in their current losing streak. They have been plagued by a combination of poor shooting and turnovers, averaging 42% from the field and 30% from three, while also committing over 15 turnovers per game.

Independent computer predictions: WVU 73-61, 74-58, 72-60 (all under)

The pick: UNDER

Pitt at FSU (-12, 135.5)

Independent computer predictions: FSU 72-60, 72-59, 73-61

FSU won 21-of-24 SU

Underdogs of 12 or more with 15 or more wins and at least three games above .500 solid 263-221-11 for 54.2 percent including 56.5 percent road

The pick: UNDER

Creighton at Marquette (-3.5, 153.5)

Marquette seniors collectively accounted for 73 percent of the team’s scoring this year and 78 percent of all Golden Eagles points over the last five games.

Marquette has won its last four home games, scoring an average of 79.8 points while giving up 65.5

Creighton great at protecting ball, though Marquette does not force a lot of turnovers 

Creighton has won 7-of-8 SU, including road wins at No. 8 Villanova and No. 10 Seton Hall 

Independent computer predictions: Marquette 79-76, 78-77, 79-77

The pick: Creighton 

Friday College Basketball Gambling Notes

Yale (-4.5, 137) at Princeton

The Tigers have allowed just 63.7 points per game across six conference games, an improvement from the 76.7 per game they gave up in non-conference play.

Princeton has won its last five home games, scoring an average of 71.4 points while giving up 54.8.

Yale defense has held opposing offenses to a field goal percentage of 37.9 percent, the 11th-best mark in the country. Princeton has allowed opponents to shoot 47 percent from the field through 19 games 

Independent computer predictions: Yale 72-66, 71-65, 75-67 (all by at least 6)

The pick: YALE 

Akron (-5, 155) at Central Michigan

Akron has gone 4-2 in their past six games. In those wins, they’ve allowed 40 percent shooting. 

Top two defensive teams in conference 

UA will play four of their next five games on the road. So far, they’re 5-3 away from Rhodes Arena

Independent computer predictions: Akron 82-76, 82-77, 81-76 (All 157 or more)

The pick: OVER 

UIC at Wright St (-11, 148)

Wright State big fave on revenge, but no edge either way

Wright State has won its last nine home games, scoring an average of 86.6 points while giving up 68.9.

Wright State great at protecting ball, while UIC not good forcing turnovers 

Independent computer predictions: Wright State 79-67,81-66, 78-68

Rider at Siena (-5.5, 148)

Siena 10-0 SU home

On ESPNU

Independent computer predictions: Siena 78-73, 79-72, 76-72