Fantasy NBA and Sports Betting Injuries, Free Expert Picks

Major betting intel and free picks for Thursday, February 6. Free winners are from Grandmaster Joe Duffy. 

Critical injuries:

Zion Williamson will play for New Orleans

Russell Westbrook is questionable for Houston 

Anthony Davis probable for Lakers

New Orleans (-4,231.5) vs. Chicago

New Orleans 10-15 SU road, Chicago 11-15 SU home

When road team laying at least two on road despite not having better home/road splits they are 1600-1353-57 for 54.2 percent but nearly 250 games above .500

815-663-31 if won previous same-season meeting 

Zion Williamson first seven games, he is averaging 19.6 points and 8.0 rebounds while shooting 55% from the field and 44% on 3-point attempts

Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 634-495-15

NEW ORLEANS 

Philadelphia vs. Milwaukee (-9, 227)

Big quality underdogs on road are a fade of 771-612-36

Wake-up call as Simmons called Sixers soft 

Teams that are substantially better at home than on the road, actually good road bet and bad home bet (Sixers)

1023-959-44 only 51.8 but warning to not outsmart yourself 

Huge home favorites in same-season revenge of blowout loss 234-181-11 (Milwaukee)

Fade better than .600 teams off 30-point loss and losers of at least three straight is 5-1

Sixers first of back-to-back games

Sixers fourth straight road game, though spread over eight days

Road underdogs off three straight road losses are 320-241-17 (Sixers)

Big home favorites in same season revenge of blowout loss 752-628-35 including 213-139-8 since 2013

MILWAUKEE

San Antonio vs. Portland (-3,232)

Blazers first of back-to-back games

Third of eight-straight road games for Spurs, while Portland second game in five days

Both teams off loss 25 or more goes over 57.6 percent of time

OVER 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Wisconsin Green Bay; Portland Trail Blazers, New Orleans Pelicans 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: UT Rio Grande Valley, Pepperdine; Portland Trail Blazers, Orlando 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Stanford opened +1 now -1

Pro Gambler’s Betting Notes For Tuesday

Winning picks from top sports betting expert Joe Duffy, expert handicapper   

Penn State at Michigan State (-8.5, 142.5)

Michigan State sloppy with ball and face top defense in forcing turnovers in Penn State

MSU off bad game offensively in which only Cassius Winston and Rocket Watts scored in double figures

Independent computer predictions: Michigan State 76-68; 76-69; 75-69

Pick: Penn State 

Rutgers at Maryland (-7.5, 130.5)

Rutgers sophomore Ron Harper Jr. is erratic but capable of overtaking game

Rutgers 6-11 center Myles Johnson average 9 ppg 

Defenses match up better for both teams

Rutgers 1-6 away from home SU, Maryland undefeated at Xfinity Center 

Independent computer predictions: Maryland 65-60; 69-61; 68-59

Pick: Rutgers 

Pick: Kentucky 

Duke (-15.5, 144) at BC

Duke massive mismatch on both ends of course, Duke 2nd in offensive efficiency versus 120 defense

BC 218th offense versus 9th defense

Seniors 48 percent of BC’s scoring, Duke 65 percent of Duke’s points

Duke forward Wendell Moore second game back in nearly a month

Independent computer predictions: Duke 86-62; 81-64; 79-64

Pick: Duke 

Miss State at UK (-5,140)

Miss State six straight losses to ranked foes 

UK freshman account for 54 percent of points, slightly more last five games led by Ashton Hagens who scored or assisted on 45 percent of their points last five games

Kentucky has won its last 11 home games, scoring an average of 77.2 points while giving up 62.9

Miss State tops nation on offensive rebounds 

Independent computer predictions: Kentucky 70-69; 72-68; 72-67

Monday NBA and College Basketball Sharp Action

Free winner from Joe Duffy’s Picks

PHILADELPHIA +2.5 Miami

Records suggest road team should be bigger dog, use the oddsmakers’ knowledge against them to the tune of 684-570-21. 

NBA

Trae Young, ATL vs BOS, questionable

Evan Fournier ORL @ CHR, questionable

PJ Washington, CHR vs ORL, questionable

De’Andre Hunter, ATL vs BOS , questionable

Julius Randle, NY @ CLE, probable

Marcus Morris, NY @ CLE, questionable

D’Angelo Russell, GS @ WAS, questionable

Ricky Rubio, PHX @ BKN, probable

Marcus Smart BOS @ ATL, Out

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Boston Celtics; Bayor

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Memphis Grizzlies

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: Cleveland form +1 to -2, Memphis -6.5 to -9.5

Sharp Betting Report, Free Pick January 31

The Friday super sharp betting report with free pick, sportsbook consensus including both NBA consensus, college basketball consensus. 

NBA injuries:

Giannis Antetokounmpo, MIL vs DEN, Confirmed

Anthony Davis LAL vs POR, Questionable

Clint Capela, HOU vs DAL, Out

Marc Gasol, TOR @ DET, Out

Tim Hardaway Jr., DAL @ HOU, Probable 

JaVale McGee LAL vs POR, Confirmed

Free pick from Joe Duffy. 

COLUMBIA +14.5 Yale

Regression to the mean angle is 982-800. Horrible teams on the road are 1734-1523 under specific situations that apply. When both angles apply, it is 273-200 for 57.7 percent. 

Consensus picks:

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Toronto, Oklahoma City; Harvard

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Brooklyn, New Orleans; Princeton 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: New Orleans opened -4.5 now -7.5, Memphis Grizzlies opened -9.5 to -12.5; Brown opened -10 now -7.5

Free NBA Betting Picks, Fantasy NBA Injuries

Betting Brandon Lange picks? We will get you out of that hole. Ben Taylor’s Bet With Ben spamming you? Here is your winning picks relief.

What a Thursday in NBA betting. These are news and notes from Joe Duffy, America’s only Grandmaster Sports Handicapper. Today’s news and notes starts out with intel for fantasy players and gamblers alike. 

NBA injuries

Patrick Beverley, LAC vs SAC, is probable

Marvin Bagley, SAC @ LAC is out

Al Horford, PHI @ ATL, is questionable 

Paul George, LAC vs SAC is probable

Jayson Tatum, BOS vs GS is questionable 

Utah-Denver (-1.5, 215)

Pick: UTAH

Charlotte-Washington (-3.5, 227)

Jordan McRea out for Washington 

Washington 6th game since 20th, but just fourth for Charlotte 

Bad teams as favorites of at least 3 good bets

Even better at 3.5

WASHINGTON 

Philadelphia (-7.5, 228)-Atlanta

DeAndre Bembry for Hawks is doubtful

More playing time for Brandon Goodwin

Alex Len out for Hawks

Miss third straight game

Bruno Fernando doubtful for Hawks

Missed Tuesday

With injuries, Hawks will go with smaller, quicker line-up with John Collins at center 

Both Mike Scott and Al Horford questionable 

Joel Embiid returned

Atlanta will get points with quick line-up but Embiid unstoppable down low

No free pick

Toronto (-10, 220)-Cleveland 

OG Anunoby will play for Toronto

Patrick McCaw questionable for Raptors

Rondae Hollis-Jefferson will miss second straight game

Terrence Davis and Matt Thomas will see extra time for Raptors 

Marc Gasol out for Toronto

Serge Ibaka gets start 

Toronto front end of back-to-back 

Toronto fat and happy? Road faves of -8.5 or more on at least eight-game winning streak 50-26-2

30-10 since 2009

Pick: TORONTO 

Sports Gambling Report: Picks, Super Computer Systems Betting, NBA Injury Report

Betting picks report for Tuesday, January 28, 2020.Grandmaster Sports Handicapper Joe Duffy has four free picks in college basketball.  Intel for both fantasy football and sports wagering.

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: New Orleans; Villanova, Florida, Virginia Tech, Rutgers 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Golden State, Atlanta, Cleveland UNDER; Virginia Tech, Villanova, George Mason

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Memphis Grizzlies; Georgetown

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none

Free winning college basketball picks:

Pitt at Duke (-16, 137)

Duke 5th on defense, Pitt 115th on offense

Duke 2nd offense, Pitt 56th defense

Inconsistent freshman Matthew Hurt, 6-9 big man getting into groove for Duke 

Pittsburgh little depth in front court and Duke will attack inside 

Blue Devils wear them down 

Computer projections from three independent sources: Duke 80-57; 77-60; 75-59

Nova (-2,143) at St John’s 

Nova 19th in the nation on offensive efficiency, while St. Johns 38th on defense 

Nova 46th on defense. St. John’s 100th on offensive efficiency 

Red Storm has won 2-of-3 SU in series 

Villanova Jermaine Samuels (11.1 points, 5.0 rebounds) is questionable 

Home teams that have won three or less of previous 8 yet at least 8 games over .500 463-374-20 (Red Storm)

432-337-16 if not getting more than four points

Computer projections from three independent sources: Villanova 72-70; 73-71; 72-69

The pick: St. John’s +2

The pick: Duke -16

Purdue at Rutgers (-3, 123)

Rutgers No. 6 defense, Purdue 51st offense

Purdue 11th on defense, Rutgers 72nd on offense 

Hunted rather than hunter, top 25 for first time since 1979

Big home court edge 

Computer projections from three independent sources: Rutgers 58-55; 61-59; 63-58

The pick: UNDER

FSU at UVA (Virginia -1, 115)

Virginia needs signature win as on bubble 

Underdogs ranked 7th or higher yet underdogs to unranked team are 157-110-4 (FSU) and 21-5 last two years

First meeting many turnovers Virginia 18, FSU 16

Points tough to come by for both

Virginia 4th in defensive efficiency, while FSU 31st on offense 

FSU 37th in defensive efficiency, Virginia 236 on offense 

Virginia slowest pace in nation

Computer projections from three independent sources: FSU 55-54; 57-56; 57-55

The pick: Florida State

NBA injuries

Joel Embiid, PHI vs GS, Questionable 

Ricky Rubio, PHX at DAL, Questionable 

Jae Crowder, MEM vs DEN, Questionable 

Jayson Tatum, BOS at MIA, Doubtful

Free Pick College Basketball, Key NBA Injury Report

Added rotation college basketball winner in college basketball from superstar Joe Duffy. 

ARKANSAS PINE-BLUFF +15 Texas Southern 

Horrible road teams on the road is 1727-1514-67. Underdogs in a stretch of low-scoring games are 555-438-18. When both apply, it is 195-131-7. 

Contrarian and consensus intel: 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Miami Heat, Dallas

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Minnesota Timberwolves 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Detroit Pistons

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: none in NBA or college basketball 

Critical fantasy NBA and sports betting picks injury info. 

Tony Snell, DET vs CLE , questionable

Derrick Rose, DET vs CLE, probable

Jimmy Butler, MIA vs ORL, questionable

Bam Adebayo, MIA vs ORL, probable

Sports Betting Information: Free Picks, Sportsbook Consensus

Free pick from Joe Duffy’s Picks is:

WASHINGTON +1 Atlanta 

Road teams playing a bad team and in a bad stretch of defensive efforts are undervalued at 126-74-1. Road favorites or small underdogs on a massive high scoring streak are 644-507-15. 

NBA Injuries for fantasy sports player and those who bet with US based sportsbooks. 

James Harden, HOU @ DEN is questionable

Jrue Holiday, NO vs BOS is probable

Jae Crowder, MEM vs PHX is doubtful

Jayson Tatum, BOS @ NO is questionable 

Jaylen Brown, BOS @ NO is questionable 

Patrick Beverley, LAC @ ORL is questionable 

Betting inside info from Joe Duffy’s clipboard. 

CBB

Michigan St (-4.5. 140) at Minnesota

Regression to mean angle is 971-798-30 (Michigan State) 

MSU 9-10 ats -.7

Minnesota 12-7 +4.9

Winning percentage is better in conference play

MSU 5th in offensive efficiency while Minnesota #51 on defense 

Minnesota 14th in offensive efficiency with MSU #21 on defense 

Maryland at Indiana (-2 -115, 131)

Maryland matches up well on defense ranked #7, compared to Indiana #43 on offense 

Indiana 45th defensive efficiency, while Indiana #52 on offense 

Both been much better at home than road 

Indiana under 7-1 last eight

Teams under at least 7-of-8 do stay under 4631-4403-142

NBA

Brooklyn (-1, 221.5)-New York

Nets playing back-to-back after playing in Detroit last night

Toronto (-2, 223.5)-San Antonio

San Antonio first of back-to-back games

Toronto won six straight but last loss to Spurs 

Favorites in at least six game winning streaks and in revenge are 146-124-8

Sunday sharp report: 

Biggest public consensus in term of percentage of bets: Memphis Grizzlies; Drake 

Most lopsided bets in term of percentage of money and biggest sportsbook liabilities: Toronto Raptors, Memphis Grizzlies; Drake, Houston Cougars 

Sharp versus square metrics AKA pros versus Joes: Portland, Denver; Evansville 

Biggest line moves with opening odds followed by current odds: NY Knicks opened +1.5 now -1.5; Manhattan opened -1 now +1.5

Are You Handicapped Without a Handicapper?

It’s a conundrum that many ATS fortune hunters face.  Sports gambling can be a great leisurely activity for all, but for the well-versed sports prophesier, it can be a lucrative enterprise. 

There are sharpies and wise guys who do make a lot of money sports gambling, but it takes the ability to both line-shop and forebode the outcome of games to make it profitable.  

While my clients’ line-tracking skills are their own, the most important doomsday machine that an odds protégée can harbor is knowing the right sides and totals to monitor. RatedSportsbooks.com is new, but soon you will find endless articles on the intel needed for advantageous prophecy, but as the musician was told on the way to Carnegie Hall, the only solution is practice, practice, and practice. 

Let there be no doubt that there are a limited number of qualified professional handicapping experts. Unfortunately the consumer is forced to ferret through the much more commonplace coin flippers with a grandiloquent sales pitch before unearthing the maestro confidants.

Too often desperate gamblers are clay pigeons for a windbag who talks the talk, but cannot walk the walk. Sometimes the other extreme happens. Ironically so many clients thinking they are suave patrons fall prey to the wolves in sheep’s clothing.

They are bamboozled into thinking virtuous means a virtuoso.  It befuddles me how these people are the most easily hoodwinked considering how they present themselves as the more discriminating shoppers of sports investment advisors. 

I have seen on Internet posting boards for example online casino gamblers assign credibility to handicappers using the bottom rung criterion of merely admitting to losing days. Any huckster can merely come clean on heads covering when he picked tails. Professional gamblers can only sneer at such easily mislead gamblers who keep the bookmakers in business for the rest of us.

The polished magnate is much more concerned with handicappers who have few losers to proclaim than those who think sportsbooks are merely confessional booths.  “Bookmaker forgive me for I have lost, it has been three weeks since my last winner.”  If you can find a bookmaker who accepts “Hail Marys” and “Our Fathers” as payment, more power to you. The rest of you, I would implore you to set the bar much higher when purchasing advice.

In Advertising 101, they teach to “Sell the sizzle and not the steak.”  But there really is no correlation between hard-sell/soft-peddle and legitimate/illegitimate in this field. 

Let me elaborate though. This is not to say that one should give merit to the notorious